Post by Rob on Mar 31, 2006 4:29:30 GMT -5
springsummers said:
yorick said:
I concede right off the bat that I don't know enough about poker to feel sure about anything - but I don't understand this argument. You're bluffing if you act like you've got a great hand, but, in fact, you don't have a great hand. It's hard for me to buy the idea that Sawyer would be surprised by a pair of nines, but not by, say, a 3 of spades and an 7 of clubs.
If you're a "bluffer" - wouldn't you be just as willing to bluff, with either hand?
This is a very good question, Spring...and your instincts are on the money. The answer has to do with betting patterns and position.
As to the former, we didn't see the entire hand, so a true analysis of Jack and Sawyer's betting patterns is impossible.
For our purposes, that leaves position.
The short version is this: Jack had the advantage because he was betting second in that particular hand. That means he gets to react, rather than act...which is always the preferred place in Texas Hold 'Em. While Sawyer can only bet or check, Jack has more options.
In this case, Sawyer chose to bet a few mangoes after the last card was dealt. Jack sensed (properly) that Sawyer was bluffing, ostensibly with an average-at-best hand. That's the good news.
The bad news is Jack's hand isn't terribly strong either; there are an awful lot of hands out there that beat a pair of 9's. Even though Sawyer may not have much, it might still be enough to beat Jack.
So...let's analyze Jack's options:
1. Does Jack fold? Definitely not, especially if Jack is confident in his read of Sawyer.
2. Does he call? Well...that's an iffy proposition since, as I said, the 9's aren't THAT strong.
3. That leaves us with the most potent weapon in No Limit Hold-'Em, the big re-raise...which is the right move.
In Jack's case, raising all-in was perfect. If Sawyer's hand is bad, he runs. If Sawyer's hand is average, he STILL runs, out of respect for the size of Jack's re-raise.
Since Sawyer's hand was pretty bad, there was only one logical choice: suck up the fact that you got outplayed, cut your losses and live to fight another day.
We really need to have a tournament at the 'Fest this year.