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Post by Rachael on Oct 6, 2008 1:00:13 GMT -5
It may be too late - the shift is so strong that one national poll has Obama up by 12 points today, which is a landslide if it holds. So it's possible that middle America has already identified with Obama/Biden and will just take this for what it is - desperation and dirty politics. They've pushed back hard on the terrorist thing today, which is good. Not gonna let themselves get swiftboated. More importantly, I think, is that McCain's likability rating is so low that negative attacks on his opponent are prone to make people view him more negatively. Julia,a lot of this stuff was brought up in the primaries, too, so people are not surprised by it. Both excellent points.
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Post by Julia, wrought iron-y on Oct 6, 2008 11:41:15 GMT -5
I refrained from linking to Babies for Obama, but this, in its small way, is as telling a piece of evidence for essential character as anything could be. Julia, the Babies For Obama thing is pretty cool, if only for the unguarded facial expressions
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Post by Sue on Oct 6, 2008 11:43:32 GMT -5
MIchelle Obama will be on the Jon Stewart show on Wednesday.
==============
From Rasmussen Reports:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Barack Obama attracting 52% of the vote while John McCain earns 44%. This is the highest level of support ever recorded for Obama and is his largest lead of the year. It also continues a remarkable twenty-five days in a row where the Democrat’s support has never declined by even a single point. The Democratic candidate has gained six full percentage points of support since Lehman Brothers collapsed to start the Wall Street mess.
Obama now leads by two points among men. That’s the first time he has led among men all year and he also enjoys a fourteen point advantage among women. Obama attracts 12% of Republican voters and leads by eleven among those not affiliated with either major political party. McCain gets the vote from 11% of Democrats.
It is worth noting that Obama’s lead is now bigger than any lead enjoyed at any point by either candidate in Election 2004.
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Post by Anne, Old S'cubie Cat on Oct 6, 2008 11:47:03 GMT -5
I refrained from linking to Babies for Obama, but this, in its small way, is as telling a piece of evidence for essential character as anything could be. Julia, the Babies For Obama thing is pretty cool, if only for the unguarded facial expressions What a lovely thing. The story made me sniffly, but it also made me feel better somehow. The guy is a real class act. I'll have to pass it on.
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Post by Sue on Oct 6, 2008 13:05:09 GMT -5
From the local Belmont website. I'd been looking all over for something specifics about how tonight's format is going to work: The Belmont debate is the only official Town Hall Debate. Participants asking questions of the candidates will be chosen by the Gallup Organization from undecided voters in the Nashville, Tenn., standard metropolitan statistical area. Belmont will have no control of the selection of participants.
I can tell you this: TN is supposed to break by 12 points or more for McCain. BUT, Nashville will be one of 2 major metropolitan areas which will go heavy for Obama (Memphis being the other). However, it says metropolitan statistical area. I'm not entirely sure what that means. We have a Nashville-Davidson County Metro gov. and around 600,000 people inside the county. However, the "metro area" often refers to Davidson PLUS the surrounding 6 counties. 4 are fairly rural and will go heavy to McCain. One is the home of MTSU (Middle TN State Univ, but I don't know that it will necessarily, either student or faculty-wise, break for Obama). The 6th is just south of us and is one of the THE richest (and most Republican) counties in the country. Plus, even inside DAvidson County we have Belle Meade which is one of the richest (and Republican) zipcodes (37205) in the country. My understanding is that Gallup has been tracking local "undecideds" for a while and identified a pool, who then had to be security vetted, before the final audience was chosen. However, I haven't been able thus far to find out if they just get to randomly get called on and if they get to just randomly ask whatever questions are on their minds. This sounds a bit too unrehearsed and uncontrollable to me. I know Tom Brokaw is "moderating" so I assume he will call on people. I'm wondering if he will have their questions before him so as to get a "mix". Maybe more of this will be explained in the introduction tomorrow night. If anybody knows more, let me know. If you want hometown flavor go to www.tennessean.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?Category=news0206but you can click on some of the other links to what is REALLY important locally at the moment and it's certainly not all about the debates.
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Post by SpringSummers on Oct 6, 2008 14:15:16 GMT -5
It may be too late - the shift is so strong that one national poll has Obama up by 12 points today, which is a landslide if it holds. So it's possible that middle America has already identified with Obama/Biden and will just take this for what it is - desperation and dirty politics. They've pushed back hard on the terrorist thing today, which is good. Not gonna let themselves get swiftboated. More importantly, I think, is that McCain's likability rating is so low that negative attacks on his opponent are prone to make people view him more negatively. Julia,a lot of this stuff was brought up in the primaries, too, so people are not surprised by it. Good point. Being seen as "more angry and mean" is not something McCain needs. And using Sarah as the attack dog doesn't really provide him sufficient cover.
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Post by Sue on Oct 6, 2008 20:35:17 GMT -5
Had a phone convo with Allison today. She lives with 4 Christian (as in "we go to Bible-study") girls. 4 of the 5 of them already know they are voting for Obama. [Allison hasn't mailed her absentee ballot back yet. She hung it up because she's just so proud and tickled and likes to look at it. ] Anyway, Roomate #5 is captain of the NU women's soccer team and doesn't have much free time. She (again, conservative Christian) says "I don't want to just vote for Obama just because 'all the college kids' are voting for him but I have't had time to read up and check both candidates out." So, Allison has to watch certain things for her class in Gender in Politics class so she and a few of the roomies were watching Sarah Palin videos on YouTube (also, Allie admits, because they are just so darned entertaining). Roomie #5 came in, watched over their shoulders for 2 minutes. Turned around, exited the room, saying: "That woman can NOT be vice-president of the United States." So, there ya go. One female undecided, firmly decided by Sarah Palin with no other outside influences whatsoever. Allison said if SP gets elected it's an insult to dozens of other women in politics who actually could do the job and are far more deserving. It would be a slap in the face. Then she said, "besides, I don't think Sarah Palin is a woman. I think she's a white male." Peggy Noonan was on Hardball today and basically said she's undecided. Since she's a well known high profile Republican that was pretty amazing. She's totally disgustipated with current events.
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Post by SpringSummers on Oct 6, 2008 20:42:50 GMT -5
Had a phone convo with Allison today. She lives with 4 Christian (as in "we go to Bible-study") girls. 4 of the 5 of them already know they are voting for Obama. [Allison hasn't mailed her absentee ballot back yet. She hung it up because she's just so proud and tickled and likes to look at it. ] Anyway, Roomate #5 is captain of the NU women's soccer team and doesn't have much free time. She (again, conservative Christian) says "I don't want to just vote for Obama just because 'all the college kids' are voting for him but I have't had time to read up and check both candidates out." So, Allison has to watch certain things for her class in Gender in Politics class so she and a few of the roomies were watching Sarah Palin videos on YouTube (also, Allie admits, because they are just so darned entertaining). Roomie #5 came in, watched over their shoulders for 2 minutes. Turned around, exited the room, saying: "That woman can NOT be vice-president of the United States." So, there ya go. One female undecided, firmly decided by Sarah Palin with no other outside influences whatsoever. Allison said if SP gets elected it's an insult to dozens of other women in politics who actually could do the job and are far more deserving. It would be a slap in the face. Then she said, "besides, I don't think Sarah Palin is a woman. I think she's a white male." Peggy Noonan was on Hardball today and basically said she's undecided. Since she's a well known high profile Republican that was pretty amazing. She's totally disgustipated with current events. Wow. Peggy Noonan, undecided? Amazing in one way, 'cause she's so . . . Republican, though not in another, as she has always seemed smart and thoughtful. Just read that some polls are calling Ohio for Obama. That could be a real deal sealer for him. Also, I like the sound of it: Ohio for Obama. Obama in Ohio. So many open vowels . . . sounds pretty. Though - I have to admit, despite all the positive signs, I'm feeling skeptical. I guess it's just that "it ain't over till it's over" feeling . . . I don't want to rush into anything. I've been hurt, you know.
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Post by Rachael on Oct 6, 2008 21:14:28 GMT -5
Had a phone convo with Allison today. She lives with 4 Christian (as in "we go to Bible-study") girls. 4 of the 5 of them already know they are voting for Obama. [Allison hasn't mailed her absentee ballot back yet. She hung it up because she's just so proud and tickled and likes to look at it. ] Anyway, Roomate #5 is captain of the NU women's soccer team and doesn't have much free time. She (again, conservative Christian) says "I don't want to just vote for Obama just because 'all the college kids' are voting for him but I have't had time to read up and check both candidates out." So, Allison has to watch certain things for her class in Gender in Politics class so she and a few of the roomies were watching Sarah Palin videos on YouTube (also, Allie admits, because they are just so darned entertaining). Roomie #5 came in, watched over their shoulders for 2 minutes. Turned around, exited the room, saying: "That woman can NOT be vice-president of the United States." So, there ya go. One female undecided, firmly decided by Sarah Palin with no other outside influences whatsoever. Allison said if SP gets elected it's an insult to dozens of other women in politics who actually could do the job and are far more deserving. It would be a slap in the face. Then she said, "besides, I don't think Sarah Palin is a woman. I think she's a white male." Peggy Noonan was on Hardball today and basically said she's undecided. Since she's a well known high profile Republican that was pretty amazing. She's totally disgustipated with current events. Wow. Peggy Noonan, undecided? Amazing in one way, 'cause she's so . . . Republican, though not in another, as she has always seemed smart and thoughtful. Just read that some polls are calling Ohio for Obama. That could be a real deal sealer for him. Also, I like the sound of it: Ohio for Obama. Obama in Ohio. So many open vowels . . . sounds pretty. Though - I have to admit, despite all the positive signs, I'm feeling skeptical. I guess it's just that "it ain't over till it's over" feeling . . . I don't want to rush into anything. I've been hurt, you know. I know what you mean; I just have all sorts of trouble believing that people aren't just lying to the pollsters...or that the Diebold factor won't be a factor...or...well, a catastrophic event that makes people somehow think only McCain can save us (how is that possible?)...I just have trouble believing the United States is ready to elect a black man with the middle name "Hussein" President. I will be so very proud when it happens, though. For the first time in almost eight years, I'll be proud of my country if we elect Barack Obama President. And on another note - Sarah Palin, as a gimmick to attract the female vote, has backfired catastrophically, IMO. Obama is up (as Sue posted) 14 points with women. That's amazing, frankly. And much of it I put down to Sarah Palin. I know how I react to her - despite my best attempts to be disengaged with her, I find I take her very candidacy personally. To paraphrase Sally Albright, she's a human affront to all intelligent women, and I am an intelligent woman. I take it personally because it was women like ME who McCain and his advisors sought to sway to his side with the Palin pick. I voted for Hilary Clinton. I did NOT choose to do so by counting X chromosomes, and I find myself insulted by the notion that I did. All other things being equal, I'd vote for the woman. IMO, all other things weren't equal - I thought she was also the better candidate. Until the end, when she went vaguely Rovian on us, but at least she prepped us all for the Ayers/Wright gambit. And then to have Sarah Palin presented to me as an alternative? As if she's in any way equivalent? When they had at least five actually qualified and very intelligent Republican women they could have chosen? The implication was that we wouldn't notice she wasn't qualified, or that she wasn't all that bright, or that she is diametrically opposed to almost everything Hilary stands for. No, no. We'd just notice the boobies. It's an insult, and when I combine it with the Republican party trying to convince middle America that people who read and are informed about the world outside our borders and worked our asses off in graduate/professional school are somehow immoral because we don't view being gay as evil and we think communist notions like government should take care of the poor...well, they've almost assured themselves that I will never again vote Republican. And because I know you're thinking it - yes, actually, I have.
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Post by Rachael on Oct 6, 2008 21:15:58 GMT -5
Oh, and my "Women for Obama" T-shirt has finally arrived. Took them a month to get me one, since it was backordered....
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Post by Julia, wrought iron-y on Oct 6, 2008 21:51:18 GMT -5
Wow. Peggy Noonan, undecided? Amazing in one way, 'cause she's so . . . Republican, though not in another, as she has always seemed smart and thoughtful. Just read that some polls are calling Ohio for Obama. That could be a real deal sealer for him. Also, I like the sound of it: Ohio for Obama. Obama in Ohio. So many open vowels . . . sounds pretty. Though - I have to admit, despite all the positive signs, I'm feeling skeptical. I guess it's just that "it ain't over till it's over" feeling . . . I don't want to rush into anything. I've been hurt, you know. I know what you mean; I just have all sorts of trouble believing that people aren't just lying to the pollsters...or that the Diebold factor won't be a factor...or...well, a catastrophic event that makes people somehow think only McCain can save us (how is that possible?)...I just have trouble believing the United States is ready to elect a black man with the middle name "Hussein" President. I will be so very proud when it happens, though. For the first time in almost eight years, I'll be proud of my country if we elect Barack Obama President. And on another note - Sarah Palin, as a gimmick to attract the female vote, has backfired catastrophically, IMO. Obama is up (as Sue posted) 14 points with women. That's amazing, frankly. And much of it I put down to Sarah Palin. I know how I react to her - despite my best attempts to be disengaged with her, I find I take her very candidacy personally. To paraphrase Sally Albright, she's a human affront to all intelligent women, and I am an intelligent woman. I take it personally because it was women like ME who McCain and his advisors sought to sway to his side with the Palin pick. I voted for Hilary Clinton. I did NOT choose to do so by counting X chromosomes, and I find myself insulted by the notion that I did. All other things being equal, I'd vote for the woman. IMO, all other things weren't equal - I thought she was also the better candidate. Until the end, when she went vaguely Rovian on us, but at least she prepped us all for the Ayers/Wright gambit. And then to have Sarah Palin presented to me as an alternative? As if she's in any way equivalent? When they had at least five actually qualified and very intelligent Republican women they could have chosen? The implication was that we wouldn't notice she wasn't qualified, or that she wasn't all that bright, or that she is diametrically opposed to almost everything Hilary stands for. No, no. We'd just notice the boobies. It's an insult, and when I combine it with the Republican party trying to convince middle America that people who read and are informed about the world outside our borders and worked our asses off in graduate/professional school are somehow immoral because we don't view being gay as evil and we think communist notions like government should take care of the poor...well, they've almost assured themselves that I will never again vote Republican. And because I know you're thinking it - yes, actually, I have. See, the thing is- Sarah Palin doesn't just insult me as a woman, she insults my backwoods bozo roots. It's an identity she's co-opted (her parents were both teachers, for one big class-related thing) and one she plays like a violin. People with he level of transparent ambition always scare me, anyway. Julia, the first dude reminds me way too much of my father at that age, before he slowed down and started to read and think
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Post by Sue on Oct 7, 2008 7:18:14 GMT -5
Rachael--
Thanks for turning me on to fivethirtyeight.com
It's one of my favorite sites now. I like all the numbers, of course, but I'm also enjoying the "field reports" of the guys who are traveling around to Obama HQs all over the country.
Liked this line of this morning's report on Indiana: "A war with Letterman is not going over well in Indiana."
(Say what you will about celebrity endorsements, but Letterman has been unrelenting and quite ascerbic. Can't recall the specifics of last night's bit it was funny ... and harsh.)
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Post by Rachael on Oct 7, 2008 9:07:27 GMT -5
Rachael-- Thanks for turning me on to fivethirtyeight.com It's one of my favorite sites now. I like all the numbers, of course, but I'm also enjoying the "field reports" of the guys who are traveling around to Obama HQs all over the country. Liked this line of this morning's report on Indiana: "A war with Letterman is not going over well in Indiana." (Say what you will about celebrity endorsements, but Letterman has been unrelenting and quite ascerbic. Can't recall the specifics of last night's bit it was funny ... and harsh.) I love that the model has predictive value; they were saying for weeks that Virginia and Florida looked likely to flip before it happened, for example. And this same basic model predicted that the White Sox would win the Central, for which Nate and company were mocked relentlessly a few months back. Guess what? Oh, and they're the guys who do the math for the "Baseball Prospectus", too - predicting players' stats based, in part, on past performance.
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Post by SpringSummers on Oct 7, 2008 11:29:00 GMT -5
Wow. Peggy Noonan, undecided? Amazing in one way, 'cause she's so . . . Republican, though not in another, as she has always seemed smart and thoughtful. Just read that some polls are calling Ohio for Obama. That could be a real deal sealer for him. Also, I like the sound of it: Ohio for Obama. Obama in Ohio. So many open vowels . . . sounds pretty. Though - I have to admit, despite all the positive signs, I'm feeling skeptical. I guess it's just that "it ain't over till it's over" feeling . . . I don't want to rush into anything. I've been hurt, you know. I know what you mean; I just have all sorts of trouble believing that people aren't just lying to the pollsters...or that the Diebold factor won't be a factor...or...well, a catastrophic event that makes people somehow think only McCain can save us (how is that possible?)...I just have trouble believing the United States is ready to elect a black man with the middle name "Hussein" President. I will be so very proud when it happens, though. For the first time in almost eight years, I'll be proud of my country if we elect Barack Obama President. And on another note - Sarah Palin, as a gimmick to attract the female vote, has backfired catastrophically, IMO. Obama is up (as Sue posted) 14 points with women. That's amazing, frankly. And much of it I put down to Sarah Palin. I know how I react to her - despite my best attempts to be disengaged with her, I find I take her very candidacy personally. To paraphrase Sally Albright, she's a human affront to all intelligent women, and I am an intelligent woman. I take it personally because it was women like ME who McCain and his advisors sought to sway to his side with the Palin pick. I voted for Hilary Clinton. I did NOT choose to do so by counting X chromosomes, and I find myself insulted by the notion that I did. All other things being equal, I'd vote for the woman. IMO, all other things weren't equal - I thought she was also the better candidate. Until the end, when she went vaguely Rovian on us, but at least she prepped us all for the Ayers/Wright gambit. And then to have Sarah Palin presented to me as an alternative? As if she's in any way equivalent? When they had at least five actually qualified and very intelligent Republican women they could have chosen? The implication was that we wouldn't notice she wasn't qualified, or that she wasn't all that bright, or that she is diametrically opposed to almost everything Hilary stands for. No, no. We'd just notice the boobies. It's an insult, and when I combine it with the Republican party trying to convince middle America that people who read and are informed about the world outside our borders and worked our asses off in graduate/professional school are somehow immoral because we don't view being gay as evil and we think communist notions like government should take care of the poor...well, they've almost assured themselves that I will never again vote Republican. And because I know you're thinking it - yes, actually, I have. I suspect - I'm not really sure why - that though Palin isn't enough to give McCain a win, he's probably doing better with her overall, than he would be doing with the "traditional old white guy" or even a more "traditional," experienced Republican female. (I don't see Palin as lacking intelligence so much as sophistication and experience and . . . how to put this . . . a substantial knowledge base.) I think McCain went on instincts here, and instincts told him that Palin would punch up his campaign better than anyone else he could think of, and he and "boring running mate" would drown in obscurity next to Obama, otherwise. And Palin has brought the campaign tons of attention, and she did really excite and energize the right, as McCain needed to do. And he had to do something to try to make some kind of claim to the "change" mantle, and Palin was a dramatic way to (try to) do that. So - well, it's impossible to prove, but I suspect that overall, she's "done her job" in McCain's campaign. I suspect he's doing as well as he could possibly be doing, given who he is, and who his opponent is . . . and GWB's popularity and the war and the financial crisis, etc. Again, it's just my own personal speculation, based on nothing more than my own instincts - but I suspect that in the end, Palin is a plus for the McCain campaign - that his numbers would be slightly less without her. And if McCain fails, he will fail because he was doomed to fail, for reasons independent of his VP choice.
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Post by Sue on Oct 7, 2008 14:15:30 GMT -5
I know what you mean; I just have all sorts of trouble believing that people aren't just lying to the pollsters...or that the Diebold factor won't be a factor...or...well, a catastrophic event that makes people somehow think only McCain can save us (how is that possible?)...I just have trouble believing the United States is ready to elect a black man with the middle name "Hussein" President. I will be so very proud when it happens, though. For the first time in almost eight years, I'll be proud of my country if we elect Barack Obama President. And on another note - Sarah Palin, as a gimmick to attract the female vote, has backfired catastrophically, IMO. Obama is up (as Sue posted) 14 points with women. That's amazing, frankly. And much of it I put down to Sarah Palin. I know how I react to her - despite my best attempts to be disengaged with her, I find I take her very candidacy personally. To paraphrase Sally Albright, she's a human affront to all intelligent women, and I am an intelligent woman. I take it personally because it was women like ME who McCain and his advisors sought to sway to his side with the Palin pick. I voted for Hilary Clinton. I did NOT choose to do so by counting X chromosomes, and I find myself insulted by the notion that I did. All other things being equal, I'd vote for the woman. IMO, all other things weren't equal - I thought she was also the better candidate. Until the end, when she went vaguely Rovian on us, but at least she prepped us all for the Ayers/Wright gambit. And then to have Sarah Palin presented to me as an alternative? As if she's in any way equivalent? When they had at least five actually qualified and very intelligent Republican women they could have chosen? The implication was that we wouldn't notice she wasn't qualified, or that she wasn't all that bright, or that she is diametrically opposed to almost everything Hilary stands for. No, no. We'd just notice the boobies. It's an insult, and when I combine it with the Republican party trying to convince middle America that people who read and are informed about the world outside our borders and worked our asses off in graduate/professional school are somehow immoral because we don't view being gay as evil and we think communist notions like government should take care of the poor...well, they've almost assured themselves that I will never again vote Republican. And because I know you're thinking it - yes, actually, I have. I suspect - I'm not really sure why - that though Palin isn't enough to give McCain a win, he's probably doing better with her overall, than he would be doing with the "traditional old white guy" or even a more "traditional," experienced Republican female. (I don't see Palin as lacking intelligence so much as sophistication and experience and . . . how to put this . . . a substantial knowledge base.) I think McCain went on instincts here, and instincts told him that Palin would punch up his campaign better than anyone else he could think of, and he and "boring running mate" would drown in obscurity next to Obama, otherwise. And Palin has brought the campaign tons of attention, and she did really excite and energize the right, as McCain needed to do. And he had to do something to try to make some kind of claim to the "change" mantle, and Palin was a dramatic way to (try to) do that. So - well, it's impossible to prove, but I suspect that overall, she's "done her job" in McCain's campaign. I suspect he's doing as well as he could possibly be doing, given who he is, and who his opponent is . . . and GWB's popularity and the war and the financial crisis, etc. Again, it's just my own personal speculation, based on nothing more than my own instincts - but I suspect that in the end, Palin is a plus for the McCain campaign - that his numbers would be slightly less without her. And if McCain fails, he will fail because he was doomed to fail, for reasons independent of his VP choice. I agree on that she's helped with the conservative base. And also that she's "punched up" the campaign. But if he had truly been hoping to attract some of Hillary's supporters I think that Palin may have back-fired. A well-known, knowledgeable Republican woman might have helped woo more disgruntled female voters. Not that we'll ever know. But I like to think (or hope) that while Palin may have brought some things to the ticket that has been more than offset by the independents who are turned off by her and those who see it as questionable judgement on McCain's part.
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