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Post by Sara on Nov 5, 2008 11:15:26 GMT -5
Since the last part is getting full anyway, I thought it might be cool to have a special thread for discussing last night's election. It's a truly historic time to be an American, and I felt it'd be helpful if we had an easy way in the future to take a look at how it impacted all of us.
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Post by Julia, wrought iron-y on Nov 5, 2008 11:50:29 GMT -5
a bit of dialogue from Jan and me, removed from the main thread and stripped of spoiler tags: Thanks for this, Diane. Spoiler button for what might be considered political content: Last night, watching the crowds gathering in Grant Park in Chicago, I was thinking about the last time I saw that happening on TV--the 1968 Democratic convention and police riot. The chant by the demonstrators was "The whole world is watching!" Based on this map, that was true yesterday as well. I am euphoric, but also because I lived through 1968, carrying a continual fear of a bullet putting an end to it all. Oh, yeah, ever so much. One of the people on my flist put up a You Tube Video of RFK's speech the night MLK was killed, and all of it came roaring back. That year broke the nation more than anything since the Civil War; the people dancing in the streets last night were, I hope, a sign that we've begin to mend. Julia, it's been a long time coming
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Post by Sue on Nov 5, 2008 11:59:43 GMT -5
Nate Silver had some darned good stats. (Well, to be almost perfect McCain has to get NC). But he called the EV and the popular vote percentage. I have not tried to go back and check the state by state margins. It seemed to me that some of the states Obama won were by smaller margins than the polls suggested, but I haven't actually looked up any numbers.
Looking at the popular vote raw totals it doesn't seem to be the historic high that they were looking for. From Newsweek I'm getting about 118,000,000. Which is less than 4 years ago.
I did read that the African American vote went up 2%---which is actually a lot, given that their % (of registered) was already very high. In other words, when blacks bother to registered, they follow it up with a vote. One reason why it's important to get them to register.
I also heard somewhere that the youth vote only ticked up 1% above previous elections.
Anybody have any better stats? Got site where I can compare both raw numbers and percents for various groups AND that lists not just registered totals, but eligible totals?
Still, 2 remarkable things I have either heard or read, is that BHO is the first Dem since LBJ to win with over 50% of the popular vote. (Clinton only got 43% in 1992? So who was the 3rd party candidate that must have taken 15% of the vote, if Bush I only got 42%?)
Also, that Obama got a higher percentage of the white vote than any recent Dem candidate.
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Post by Sue on Nov 5, 2008 12:01:49 GMT -5
oh, here is a site I'll investigate more fully: uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/But, having totally lost yesterday I really must go (attempt) to do something today.
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Post by Rachael on Nov 5, 2008 12:03:51 GMT -5
Nate Silver had some darned good stats. (Well, to be almost perfect McCain has to get NC). But he called the EV and the popular vote percentage. I have not tried to go back and check the state by state margins. It seemed to me that some of the states Obama won were by smaller margins than the polls suggested, but I haven't actually looked up any numbers. That's true in some places, but not most. And in some, we positively crushed them. As for example, Nevada, where the win was in the double digits - well above the poll prediction. Virginia was worrying, and seemed close, but in the end, we won it by 5%. Which is about what Nate was predicting. Possibly a bit better. Honestly? The second-best news of the day, for me, is that I get to say, "Bradley Effect? What Bradley Effect?" Now, if I could just throw off the depression and disappointment I feel over my fellow Californians voting for an amendment to strip away rights....
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Post by Onjel on Nov 5, 2008 12:04:31 GMT -5
Nate Silver had some darned good stats. (Well, to be almost perfect McCain has to get NC). But he called the EV and the popular vote percentage. I have not tried to go back and check the state by state margins. It seemed to me that some of the states Obama won were by smaller margins than the polls suggested, but I haven't actually looked up any numbers. Looking at the popular vote raw totals it doesn't seem to be the historic high that they were looking for. From Newsweek I'm getting about 118,000,000. Which is less than 4 years ago. I did read that the African American vote went up 2%---which is actually a lot, given that their % (of registered) was already very high. In other words, when blacks bother to registered, they follow it up with a vote. One reason why it's important to get them to register. I also heard somewhere that the youth vote only ticked up 1% above previous elections. Anybody have any better stats? Got site where I can compare both raw numbers and percents for various groups AND that lists not just registered totals, but eligible totals? Still, 2 remarkable things I have either heard or read, is that BHO is the first Dem since LBJ to win with over 50% of the popular vote. (Clinton only got 43% in 1992? So who was the 3rd party candidate that must have taken 15% of the vote, if Bush I only got 42%?) Also, that Obama got a higher percentage of the white vote than any recent Dem candidate. Did Nader run in '92? Or did that little funny-looking man from Texas run that year? I think I've blocked his name from my memory. ETA: H. Ross Perot! I remembered! (sadly)
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Post by Rachael on Nov 5, 2008 12:06:12 GMT -5
a bit of dialogue from Jan and me, removed from the main thread and stripped of spoiler tags: Thanks for this, Diane. Spoiler button for what might be considered political content: Last night, watching the crowds gathering in Grant Park in Chicago, I was thinking about the last time I saw that happening on TV--the 1968 Democratic convention and police riot. The chant by the demonstrators was "The whole world is watching!" Based on this map, that was true yesterday as well. I am euphoric, but also because I lived through 1968, carrying a continual fear of a bullet putting an end to it all. Oh, yeah, ever so much. One of the people on my flist put up a You Tube Video of RFK's speech the night MLK was killed, and all of it came roaring back. That year broke the nation more than anything since the Civil War; the people dancing in the streets last night were, I hope, a sign that we've begin to mend. Julia, it's been a long time coming I also worry about the bullet...I've stopped reading the crazy-con threads (as opposed to the sane-cons, like Onjel - them I like) because they're all so very racist this morning. We did piss off the racists. You can tell a sane Republican from an insane Republican today by looking to see what they're saying. If they're trying to figure out why they lost, they're sane. If they already know, and it's because the rest of America is stupid and racist, then they're crazy. I've seen the word "half-breed" on a thread where the person using it was trying to convince people that Obama WON due to racism.
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Post by Rachael on Nov 5, 2008 12:06:51 GMT -5
Nate Silver had some darned good stats. (Well, to be almost perfect McCain has to get NC). But he called the EV and the popular vote percentage. I have not tried to go back and check the state by state margins. It seemed to me that some of the states Obama won were by smaller margins than the polls suggested, but I haven't actually looked up any numbers. Looking at the popular vote raw totals it doesn't seem to be the historic high that they were looking for. From Newsweek I'm getting about 118,000,000. Which is less than 4 years ago. I did read that the African American vote went up 2%---which is actually a lot, given that their % (of registered) was already very high. In other words, when blacks bother to registered, they follow it up with a vote. One reason why it's important to get them to register. I also heard somewhere that the youth vote only ticked up 1% above previous elections. Anybody have any better stats? Got site where I can compare both raw numbers and percents for various groups AND that lists not just registered totals, but eligible totals? Still, 2 remarkable things I have either heard or read, is that BHO is the first Dem since LBJ to win with over 50% of the popular vote. (Clinton only got 43% in 1992? So who was the 3rd party candidate that must have taken 15% of the vote, if Bush I only got 42%?) Also, that Obama got a higher percentage of the white vote than any recent Dem candidate. Did Nader run in '92? Or did that little funny-looking man from Texas run that year? I think I've blocked his name from my memory. ETA: H. Ross Perot! I remembered! (sadly) Oh, yeah, the Ferengi....
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Post by Onjel on Nov 5, 2008 12:09:13 GMT -5
Did Nader run in '92? Or did that little funny-looking man from Texas run that year? I think I've blocked his name from my memory. ETA: H. Ross Perot! I remembered! (sadly) Oh, yeah, the Ferengi.... I never thought of him that way, but it's so perfect!
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Post by Sara on Nov 5, 2008 12:13:15 GMT -5
a bit of dialogue from Jan and me, removed from the main thread and stripped of spoiler tags: Oh, yeah, ever so much. One of the people on my flist put up a You Tube Video of RFK's speech the night MLK was killed, and all of it came roaring back. That year broke the nation more than anything since the Civil War; the people dancing in the streets last night were, I hope, a sign that we've begin to mend. Julia, it's been a long time coming I also worry about the bullet...I've stopped reading the crazy-con threads (as opposed to the sane-cons, like Onjel - them I like) because they're all so very racist this morning. We did piss off the racists. You can tell a sane Republican from an insane Republican today by looking to see what they're saying. If they're trying to figure out why they lost, they're sane. If they already know, and it's because the rest of America is stupid and racist, then they're crazy. I've seen the word "half-breed" on a thread where the person using it was trying to convince people that Obama WON due to racism. Hell, I happened upon a conversation about whether the timing of the death of Obama's grandmother was too convenient to be pure chance.
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Post by Rachael on Nov 5, 2008 12:13:41 GMT -5
And this was suggested as the song of the day by one of the 538 posters:
When all the dark clouds roll away And the sun begins to shine I see my freedom from across the way And it comes right in on time Well it shines so bright and it gives so much light And it comes from the sky above Makes me feel so free makes me feel like me And lights my life with love
And it seems like and it feels like And it seems like yes it feels like A brand new day, yeah A brand new day
I was lost and double crossed With my hands behind my back I was longtime hurt and thrown in the dirt Shoved out on the railroad track Ive been used, abused and so confused And I had nowhere to run But I stood and looked And my eyes got hooked On that beautiful morning sun
And it seems like and it feels like And it seems like yes it feels like A brand new day, yeah A brand new day
And the sun shines down all on the ground Yeah and the grass is oh so green And my heart is still and Ive got the will And I dont really feel so mean Here it comes, here it comes 0 here it comes right now And it comes right in on time Well it eases me and it pleases me And it satisfies my mind
And it seems like and it feels like And it seems like yes it feels like A brand new day, yeah A brand new day
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Post by Rachael on Nov 5, 2008 12:14:26 GMT -5
I also worry about the bullet...I've stopped reading the crazy-con threads (as opposed to the sane-cons, like Onjel - them I like) because they're all so very racist this morning. We did piss off the racists. You can tell a sane Republican from an insane Republican today by looking to see what they're saying. If they're trying to figure out why they lost, they're sane. If they already know, and it's because the rest of America is stupid and racist, then they're crazy. I've seen the word "half-breed" on a thread where the person using it was trying to convince people that Obama WON due to racism. Hell, I happened upon a conversation about whether the timing of the death of Obama's grandmother was too convenient to be pure chance. I saw that MANY times on Monday. Ugh.
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Post by Rachael on Nov 5, 2008 12:14:21 GMT -5
Oh, yeah, the Ferengi.... I never thought of him that way, but it's so perfect! Hey, my dad and I kept joking that he was gonna start offering strips of gold-pressed latinum in exchange for votes....
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Post by Sue on Nov 5, 2008 12:15:12 GMT -5
Nate Silver had some darned good stats. (Well, to be almost perfect McCain has to get NC). But he called the EV and the popular vote percentage. I have not tried to go back and check the state by state margins. It seemed to me that some of the states Obama won were by smaller margins than the polls suggested, but I haven't actually looked up any numbers. That's true in some places, but not most. And in some, we positively crushed them. As for example, Nevada, where the win was in the double digits - well above the poll prediction. Virginia was worrying, and seemed close, but in the end, we won it by 5%. Which is about what Nate was predicting. Possibly a bit better. Honestly? The second-best news of the day, for me, is that I get to say, "Bradley Effect? What Bradley Effect?" Now, if I could just throw off the depression and disappointment I feel over my fellow Californians voting for an amendment to strip away rights.... Here is what I was looking for: www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/politics/role over the states, click on one and not just the results come up but also the RCP average of polls. It's not 538.com but it will do and it doesn't prove that my impression was wrong, at least in the states I've checked. So they've called prop 8? I didn't realize.
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Post by Sue on Nov 5, 2008 12:16:44 GMT -5
Oh, yeah, the Ferengi.... I never thought of him that way, but it's so perfect! Explains why he is so rich.
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