Post by Spaced Out Looney on Feb 24, 2006 13:28:08 GMT -5
On an unrelated note:
About the previouslies that weren't previouslies: Not fond of the practice; either a scene is a part of the show or it's not. However, I wasn't really paying attention to them the first time I watched, and by not watching them, I never felt that I was missing something. So, it wasn't dire that they be included at all, i.e. it was OK that the scenes were cut. However, I'm all for more Battlestar Galactica, so I'm wondering/hoping that maybe they would be reinserted when the DVDs come out.
Also, interesting parallel between Boomer almost being forced to have an abortion, and Rya almost being denied an abortion.
Thinky thoughts (if any sciency types want to contest what I've written here, feel free):
I took a class in college ominously called "The Human Predicament" which was more or less about life sciences and public policy. How do we use the knowledge we've learned to make informed decisions about health care, fishing rights, environmental regulations, and so on? It takes *a lot* of training to understand science results in their original form, that is the papers that appear in scientific journals; most lay persons (including politicians in this, since most are untrained), read about scientific knowledge and discoveries in the popular media, which paraphrases and digests these papers. Scientific advisors would do much the same.
Point being, human population growth is complicated. Baltar, as a scientist knows this, and knows the difficulty of trying to explain this data in a manner that Roslin can understand. We aren't given the break down of all his calculations, so it's not possible to examine them and know how accurate they are. Another challenge to understanding this is that on earth today, most attention has been focused on *reducing* population growth. A few countries (mostly in Europe) suffer from negative population growth, this is a result of emmigration in addition to death rate and birth rate.
Roslin reacted too quickly, most likely feeling the pressure of the campaign. She should have asked more questions.
Some basics:
*Rate of Natural Increase, or Population Growth, is the Birth Rate minus Death Rate. (I know, kind of a "No, Duh.")
Since humans are not fast reproducing bacteria, we have to take reproductive habits and demographics into account.
Total Fertility Rate is the average number of children a woman has in a lifetime. The Replacement Rate is the number of children on average the women in a population need to have in order to result in Zero Population Growth, which in Western countries is approximately 2.15, because some children will not survive long enough to reproduce. In developing counties, the Replacement Rate is higher because of lower life expectancies. On the show, they want a population increase, so the Total Fertility Rate should be higher than the Replacement Rate.
Population Momentum is where demographics comes in. The Total Fertility Rate can be whatever it is desired to be, but the desired Population Growth will take a while to acheive. The number will waver over the next several years as the portion of the population that can bear children varies. Countries trying to reduce their population growth, may find it difficult because of their bottom heavy demographics; a large portion of the population has not yet reached childbearing age. When they do, the women may have 2.x children at the replacement rate, but the population will in the end be much larger than it was originally.
Demographics can have a significant effect on a society. If the population growth drops too quickly, you have a large elderly population and not enough caretakers to support them. Which can change life expectancy, quality of life, and so forth. We have a little bit of that problem in the US, and a much larger problem in China, as a result of their "one child policy." Male/Female ratio can also skew things, but for the most part, this remains pretty close to 1:1.
We are given no information about Total Fertility Rates OR Demographics. Difficult to draw conclusions without the data.
a case study I found that describes some of the stuff I just mention, plus some pretty graphs.
Information on Population Growth at Global Issues.org
Population Reference Bureau
Other thoughts that came to mind:
*Why did Rya want an abortion? No one asked her. Getting that information might have been very enlightening. Better to inform Roslin as to the state of things. We get some inkling as to the Gemenese customs (girls are considered property of their parents apparently.), but not about whether there are any serious social issues plaguing the fleet leading to her situation. Was she raped? Coerced by her parents? Doesn't feel she could be a parent? Resentful towards the father? How does she feel about humanity being near extinction? Could she have been appealed to have given birth to the child for the sake of repopulating the species if an adoption were arranged?
*In this post-apocalyptic situation, on one hand, one would expect people to be eager to have children to replace the lives of their lost loved ones. But on the other, things are hardly stable. Many people might consider it too dangerous. Better to wait until the threat has gone away. For how long will they wait? Will it ever be "safe" enough? Do the people feel confident in the survival of the human race?
*One really interesting thing I remember from my studies, is that the most effective method of reducing population growth in a population is encouraging the education of women. Educated women have children later (fewer child bearing years), fewer children, and more women have none at all. Not clear if the reverse would be true. Most studies focus on ways of reducing population growth.
*In developing countries, the death rate falls first, due to improvements in medical technology and living conditions. The birth rate usually takes about a full generation later to fall because it takes that long for the population to adjust their mentality. "High death rate means we need a lot of children, but oh, actually the death rate has fallen, so we don't need as many." Not clear if the reverse is true, as is the case on the show.
*It's estimated that the current population on earth is descended from a population of about 10, 000. 50,000 is surely enough to repopulate the species.
*If the administration is making a conscious effort to increase Population Growth, then they had better be planning for the services, resources, and living space to go along with that.
*IMHO, incentives to reproduce rather than criminalization of abortion would be more effective at encouraging population growth. The one study on encouraging population growth was about Greece, who would play porn on the TV during the traditional afternoon siesta. ;D Criminalization of abortion does not stop it from happening. Better for the administration to put out a proclamation discouraging it, explaining why, than to ban it outright. This is a touchy subject, so I'll stop here.
Clear as mud?
About the previouslies that weren't previouslies: Not fond of the practice; either a scene is a part of the show or it's not. However, I wasn't really paying attention to them the first time I watched, and by not watching them, I never felt that I was missing something. So, it wasn't dire that they be included at all, i.e. it was OK that the scenes were cut. However, I'm all for more Battlestar Galactica, so I'm wondering/hoping that maybe they would be reinserted when the DVDs come out.
Also, interesting parallel between Boomer almost being forced to have an abortion, and Rya almost being denied an abortion.
Thinky thoughts (if any sciency types want to contest what I've written here, feel free):
I took a class in college ominously called "The Human Predicament" which was more or less about life sciences and public policy. How do we use the knowledge we've learned to make informed decisions about health care, fishing rights, environmental regulations, and so on? It takes *a lot* of training to understand science results in their original form, that is the papers that appear in scientific journals; most lay persons (including politicians in this, since most are untrained), read about scientific knowledge and discoveries in the popular media, which paraphrases and digests these papers. Scientific advisors would do much the same.
Point being, human population growth is complicated. Baltar, as a scientist knows this, and knows the difficulty of trying to explain this data in a manner that Roslin can understand. We aren't given the break down of all his calculations, so it's not possible to examine them and know how accurate they are. Another challenge to understanding this is that on earth today, most attention has been focused on *reducing* population growth. A few countries (mostly in Europe) suffer from negative population growth, this is a result of emmigration in addition to death rate and birth rate.
Roslin reacted too quickly, most likely feeling the pressure of the campaign. She should have asked more questions.
Some basics:
*Rate of Natural Increase, or Population Growth, is the Birth Rate minus Death Rate. (I know, kind of a "No, Duh.")
Since humans are not fast reproducing bacteria, we have to take reproductive habits and demographics into account.
Total Fertility Rate is the average number of children a woman has in a lifetime. The Replacement Rate is the number of children on average the women in a population need to have in order to result in Zero Population Growth, which in Western countries is approximately 2.15, because some children will not survive long enough to reproduce. In developing counties, the Replacement Rate is higher because of lower life expectancies. On the show, they want a population increase, so the Total Fertility Rate should be higher than the Replacement Rate.
Population Momentum is where demographics comes in. The Total Fertility Rate can be whatever it is desired to be, but the desired Population Growth will take a while to acheive. The number will waver over the next several years as the portion of the population that can bear children varies. Countries trying to reduce their population growth, may find it difficult because of their bottom heavy demographics; a large portion of the population has not yet reached childbearing age. When they do, the women may have 2.x children at the replacement rate, but the population will in the end be much larger than it was originally.
Demographics can have a significant effect on a society. If the population growth drops too quickly, you have a large elderly population and not enough caretakers to support them. Which can change life expectancy, quality of life, and so forth. We have a little bit of that problem in the US, and a much larger problem in China, as a result of their "one child policy." Male/Female ratio can also skew things, but for the most part, this remains pretty close to 1:1.
We are given no information about Total Fertility Rates OR Demographics. Difficult to draw conclusions without the data.
a case study I found that describes some of the stuff I just mention, plus some pretty graphs.
Information on Population Growth at Global Issues.org
Population Reference Bureau
Other thoughts that came to mind:
*Why did Rya want an abortion? No one asked her. Getting that information might have been very enlightening. Better to inform Roslin as to the state of things. We get some inkling as to the Gemenese customs (girls are considered property of their parents apparently.), but not about whether there are any serious social issues plaguing the fleet leading to her situation. Was she raped? Coerced by her parents? Doesn't feel she could be a parent? Resentful towards the father? How does she feel about humanity being near extinction? Could she have been appealed to have given birth to the child for the sake of repopulating the species if an adoption were arranged?
*In this post-apocalyptic situation, on one hand, one would expect people to be eager to have children to replace the lives of their lost loved ones. But on the other, things are hardly stable. Many people might consider it too dangerous. Better to wait until the threat has gone away. For how long will they wait? Will it ever be "safe" enough? Do the people feel confident in the survival of the human race?
*One really interesting thing I remember from my studies, is that the most effective method of reducing population growth in a population is encouraging the education of women. Educated women have children later (fewer child bearing years), fewer children, and more women have none at all. Not clear if the reverse would be true. Most studies focus on ways of reducing population growth.
*In developing countries, the death rate falls first, due to improvements in medical technology and living conditions. The birth rate usually takes about a full generation later to fall because it takes that long for the population to adjust their mentality. "High death rate means we need a lot of children, but oh, actually the death rate has fallen, so we don't need as many." Not clear if the reverse is true, as is the case on the show.
*It's estimated that the current population on earth is descended from a population of about 10, 000. 50,000 is surely enough to repopulate the species.
*If the administration is making a conscious effort to increase Population Growth, then they had better be planning for the services, resources, and living space to go along with that.
*IMHO, incentives to reproduce rather than criminalization of abortion would be more effective at encouraging population growth. The one study on encouraging population growth was about Greece, who would play porn on the TV during the traditional afternoon siesta. ;D Criminalization of abortion does not stop it from happening. Better for the administration to put out a proclamation discouraging it, explaining why, than to ban it outright. This is a touchy subject, so I'll stop here.
Clear as mud?